At the 2024 ASAE Annual Meeting & Exposition, Aran Ryan from Oxford Economics introduced the concept of “Slowbalization” — a slowdown in globalization — when discussing the global economic outlook. He highlighted how geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, and economic restructuring in major economies like China were likely to reshape the landscape. That prediction is already proving true, as associations and their members adapt to an increasingly complex and radically transformed global environment. To gain a deeper understanding of how the economic outlook is unfolding, and its impact on associations, we reached out to panelists who participated in the Oxford Economics presentation.

Magdalena Nowicka Mook, CEO of the International Coaching Federation remarked, “Geopolitical tensions almost always translate to economic uncertainties. They may differ significantly by geography and certainly by the sector or industry. Associations need to pay keen attention to the signals from the market and trends in their particular field.”

However, she noted, in uncertain or tough times, members have historically turned to their professional associations for credible and timely information. “This may add some pressure to associations while at the same time proving, yet again, their importance for the viability of the marketplace.”

Sid Bhatnagar, CEO of the American Society for Quality, added, “The economic outlook remains in flux, shaped by shifting geopolitical landscapes, evolving trade policies, and macroeconomic pressures. As industries adapt to these rapid changes, we must recognize that resilience is not about predicting the future but preparing for it.”

Bhatnagar noted that in these times of uncertainty, “associations serve as beacons of stability — bringing together like-minded professionals, fostering collaboration, and equipping industries with the resources needed to navigate complex challenges.”

In this environment, community and shared knowledge are essential for resilience and growth. “By uniting experts, advocating for smart policies, and driving innovation, associations ensure that businesses and professionals are not just surviving but thriving,” he said. “While the path ahead is uncertain, one thing remains clear: Together, we are stronger.”

An Overview of Current Trends

Governments worldwide are adjusting their fiscal strategies in response to economic uncertainty, with central banks balancing inflation control and the need for sustained growth. These policies affect financial services, housing, consumer markets, and indirectly, the entire economy. At the same time, evolving taxation policies in major economies like the U.S., including potential adjustments to corporate tax rates and proposed changes to nonprofit tax-exempt status, are shaping decisions on business investments and nonprofit financial planning. These shifts will influence economic activity, charitable giving, and government funding structures.

Policy Shifts and Implications

The new U.S. administration has ushered in a consequential period for economic and trade policy. While it offers a chance to revisit outdated regulations and advance competitiveness through more market-driven solutions, the early weeks have been marked by renewed protectionist moves — including tariff proposals, tightened industrial policy, and barriers that risk further fragmenting global supply chains. These developments, coupled with ongoing market volatility, suggest that the path ahead will be anything but predictable. While intended to bolster domestic industries, such measures may ultimately constrain economic freedom, distort market incentives, and pass rising costs onto consumers. Meanwhile, immigration restrictions could further tighten an already strained labor market — potentially dampening growth and adding to inflationary pressures. Some of us hope that, with a shift toward sounder fiscal management, pro-growth reforms, and regulatory streamlining, the U.S. could reestablish a position of leadership in the global economy grounded in flexibility and innovation. At the end of the day, other parts of the world, such as many European economies, remain hampered by structural rigidity, higher taxation, and policy inflexibility, leaving them less agile in responding to the fast-moving global economic shifts we are experiencing. Policy modernization efforts are reshaping workforce regulations, trade agreements, and industry-specific standards. There is an opportunity for associations to ensure that regulatory changes do not become burdensome, advocating for policies that foster competition and market-driven solutions rather than increased bureaucratic oversight.

Higher interest rates will likely remain a key factor shaping the economic landscape, as the Federal Reserve continues its commitment to curbing inflation. While this approach aims to stabilize the economy, it also raises borrowing costs for businesses and nonprofits, making capital-intensive investments more difficult and potentially stifling economic growth.

Geopolitical uncertainty, including tensions involving NATO, Russia, and other global players, poses risks to economic stability, supply chains, and energy markets.

What This Means for Associations and Their Members

The economic shifts ahead present both challenges and opportunities for associations and their members. Rising operational costs due to inflation and increased interest rates may require organizations to implement cost-containment strategies. Trade and professional associations will have an important role in guiding members in navigating these financial pressures. Recent cuts to government funding have already had a substantial impact on some associations, particularly those reliant on public grants or contracts. These cuts not only threaten program continuity but may also trigger a snowball effect on employment across related sectors. In response, associations are uniquely positioned to support affected professionals by helping them find new roles through targeted networking, training programs, and industry upskilling efforts. Additionally, policy engagement is essential, as changes to taxation and government funding may have unintended consequences. Associations will need to continue to proactively advocate for their sectors to mitigate potential burdens.

Future-proofing member benefits is another priority. Organizations should diversify their educational offerings, expand digital engagement, and provide data-driven insights to support members. Associations in education, professional development, and technology will be key in equipping members with the knowledge and tools needed to stay competitive in uncertain economic conditions.

Associations can position themselves for resilience by staying attuned to shifting economic policies, supporting their members through uncertainty, and proactively planning for a volatile global landscape.

Economic Variables and Strategic Actions for Associations

Economic Variable	Impact	Strategic Actions for Associations
Slowbalization	Reduced global trade flows and economic integration	Advocate for free trade policies; conduct in-depth market intelligence reports for members; facilitate global and regional networking opportunities to explore new trade routes.
Global Trade Friction	Disruptions in international supply chains	Develop shared supply chain risk-mitigation frameworks; create industry-wide contingency plans for sourcing and logistics; push for open market policies that reduce trade barriers.
Tariffs and Trade Barriers	Higher costs for imported goods, supply chain adjustments	Advocate for policies that reduce regulatory burdens; establish trade education programs to help members navigate new tariffs.
Immigration Policy Changes	Tighter labor markets, potential wage increases	Build cross-industry workforce development initiatives; promote policies that allow for skilled immigration to fuel innovation and growth.
Higher Interest Rates	Increased borrowing costs for businesses and nonprofits	Offer financial literacy and planning workshops; create industry-specific loan assistance or investment guidance programs.
Potential Tax Reforms	Changes in tax structures affecting funding and investment	Provide members with tax impact assessments; advocate for favorable nonprofit tax policies at local and national levels.
Higher Unemployment in Certain Industries	Job losses and displacement in vulnerable sectors	Create peer-to-peer networking, retraining programs, and job placement support within affected industries.
Geopolitical Uncertainty	Market instability, potential energy supply risks	Develop scenario planning guides for different geopolitical risks; support members with strategic forecasting tools.
Policy Modernization	New compliance requirements, shifting regulations	Establish regulatory task forces to monitor and respond to policy changes; push for regulatory simplification and reductions in compliance burdens; develop tools to help members track and adapt quickly.

The Path Forward

As associations and their members confront a rapidly changing economic landscape, adaptability and foresight will be key to maintaining stability and seizing emerging opportunities. Collaboration will play a crucial role in this process. Associations can provide their members with timely insights, advocacy support, and innovative solutions to navigate economic uncertainty by forging stronger connections with policymakers, industry leaders, and educational institutions. Technology and data analytics will also be essential tools, enabling associations to track trends, assess risks, and guide their members in making informed strategic decisions.

In such an era of rapid economic transformation, those who embrace agility and innovation will lead the way. Associations have an opportunity — and a responsibility — to ensure that their members are equipped to thrive in a competitive, ever-changing world.